Will there be a large exploit / security breach (e.g. cross-chain bridge, smart contract bug) affecting a top 10 asset or major protocol in the next 6 months?

DeFi’s history shows repeated exploits, with billions lost. Bridges, restaking platforms, and governance systems remain high-risk. A $100m+ exploit in a top protocol (like Lido, Aave, or Curve) would damage confidence, spark contagion in liquidity, and trigger both sell-offs and regulatory crackdowns. Probability is non-trivial.

failures

Current: 40%0%

Probability Trends

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