Will there be a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its FOMC meeting in October 2025?

The October FOMC is a key test: markets largely expect the Fed to begin easing after inflation data softened and growth slowed. If a cut happens, it boosts liquidity and risk sentiment, favoring crypto. If deferred, crypto may drop as expectations unwind. Decision hinges on September CPI and labor reports.

rates

Current: 81%+2%

Probability Trends

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Sources and Links

Fed’s Powell signals further US interest rate cuts are not guaranteed

media

Central bank faces ‘challenging situation’ as it weighs inflation risks while jobs market softens

Trust: 65%
Current Signal: -5%
Updated: 09/23/2025, 6:14 PM

Top Federal Reserve official warns against quick series of rate cuts

media

Austan Goolsbee says weakening in jobs market does not signal looming recession

Trust: 55%
Current Signal: -3%
Updated: 09/24/2025, 6:30 PM

Fed officials were cautious about inflation as they agreed rate cuts

media

Minutes from US central bank’s September meeting showed lingering concern about price pressures

Trust: 65%
Current Signal: -3%
Updated: 10/08/2025, 7:27 PM

Powell signals support for more rate cuts as US job market cools

media

Federal Reserve chair says inflation expectations are close to central bank’s 2% goal

Trust: 80%
Current Signal: 5%
Updated: 10/14/2025, 5:35 PM

Fed governor Waller backs further rate cuts but urges caution

media

Top official says policymakers must proceed ‘with care’ amid mixed signals over health of US economy 

Trust: 68%
Current Signal: 2%
Updated: 10/16/2025, 3:51 PM