See the Future Before it Happens with Farseer

Predictive analysis system specialized in events that could shake the DeFi ecosystem. We combine prediction markets, verified media, and community signals to generate calibrated probabilities.

Top Tracked Events

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How It Works

  • Signal Aggregation

    We combine data from prediction markets, verified media, and carefully curated rumors on the crypto ecosystem.

  • Probability Calculation

    Our algorithms weigh each source by their relevance to the event and their historical accuracy to create the most likely outcomes for each event.

  • Continuous Validation

    We constantly evaluate our model's accuracy and adjust how it weighs each source based on past events and their resolutions.

Coverage Domains

Tech

L2 launches, ETFs, chain updates, and technical developments in the ecosystem.

Event Examples

  • Arbitrum Nova launch
  • Bitcoin spot ETF approval
  • Ethereum Shanghai upgrade

Coverage Level

High level of coverage with solid technical signals

Geopolitics

International events that affect the ecosystem, like government regulations, exchange sanctions, and tensions between countries.

Event Examples

  • Russian exchange sanctions
  • Taiwan/China tensions
  • European MiCA regulation

Coverage Level

Medium level of coverage with high uncertainty due to politics

Interest Rates

Central bank monetary policy decisions that affect crypto markets.

Event Examples

  • September Fed meetings
  • ECB decisions
  • BoJ monetary policy

Coverage Level

Very high precision, robust historical data

Technical Failures

Possible DeFi exploits, failed forks, and protocol vulnerabilities.

Event Examples

  • Curve Finance exploit
  • Failed Ethereum fork
  • Multichain bridge hack

Coverage Level

Low coverage, unpredictable events

Black Swans

Very low probability but high systemic impact events.

Event Examples

  • Global Binance ban
  • Massive Tether hack
  • Major stablecoin default

Coverage Level

Very low precision, inherently unpredictable

Our Signal Sources

Markets

  • Polymarket, Kalshi
  • BTC/ETH funding rates
  • Options skew
  • On-chain volume
High weight

Verified Media

  • Reuters, Financial Times
  • Coindesk, CoinTelegraph
  • Official announcements
  • Fact-checked analysis
Medium weight

Rumors

  • Reddit (r/ethereum, r/defi)
  • Verified crypto Twitter accounts
  • Curated Telegram Groups
  • Selected Zerohedge
Low weight

Farseer's Limitations

  • No Predictions Outside Crypto

    We do not cover events that are unrelated to the crypto ecosystem (e.g. sports, entertainment, political news that doesn't involve financial regulations etc.)

  • Variable Uncertainty

    Black swans inherently have higher uncertainty. Low calibration in this category is expected for extremely rare events.

  • Source Dependency

    The quality of our predictions depends on the availability and accuracy of external sources. Completely new events may have lower initial coverage.